Matt Forbeck, who ran a couple Kickstarters last year, has done an in-depth analysis of gauging your chances of succeeding with a Kickstarter novel.
If you’re at all interested in this kind of thing (as I obviously am), it’s pretty, er, interesting. :) I did a kind of mock “aw!” when I saw NO DOMINION hadn’t made it into his top ten list, although SPIRIT OF THE CENTURY, for which I shall shortly be writing a novel, did, so, y’know, that salved the pain.
But wait, true believers! NO DOMINION *did* make it into his refined list–and by the end of his refinements, is nestled nicely at #4 in successful Kickstarter novels (and my friend Tim Pratt’s recent successful Marla Mason novel lands solidly at #6!), which is pretty awesome.
Someday I’ll be in a position to run another one. :)